Like it or not, technology has changed the way we live. In a world that is now 24/7, it has become so integrated into our daily activities that it is only when it fails that we understand our dependence. And the pace of change is not slowing. Following is a top 10 list of broad technology predictions from the respected technology research firm Gartner and how they could affect the business environment.
- Trend 10: The virtual world will begin to touch the real world. By year-end 2012, physical sensors will create 20 percent of non-video Internet traffic. The extent and diversity of real-time environmental sensing is growing rapidly as our ability to act on and interpret the growing volumes of data captured, is increasing. Organisations are considering how to use the growing volume of real-time data. This might create new business models and enable better informed business decisions.
- Trend 9. Wireless providers will start charging for bandwidth. By the end of 2010, most wireless operators will cease to offer unlimited (flat rate) mobile data plans. Gartner warns that users must expect data throughput limitations on 3G to continue and plan mobile enterprise services accordingly. Networks are already hitting capacity and increased customer demand is impacting network availability and effective throughput. Mobile data services are already slowing down as carriers frequently fail to deliver on the promised speeds.
- Trend 8. Mobile phones will replace desk phones. By year-end 2013, 40 percent of enterprise knowledge workers will have abandoned or removed their desk phone. With complex desk phones costing several hundred dollars per unit, and growing moves toward remote or flexible workers, there will be significant cost savings possible from going 100 percent wireless.
- Trend 7. Netbooks will increase their market share. By 2012, 30 percent of mobile PCs sold in the worldwide consumer market will be priced at less than (U.S.) $300. The inclusion of wireless functionality for mobile Internet connectivity, when combined with the growing availability of wireless infrastructure, makes these devices attractive to telecommunications service providers, opening up a new distribution channel.
- Trend 6. PC recycling will go into decline. In 2012, the major PC vendors will recycle only one PC for every five they despatch. With ongoing PC market growth and strong adoption of mobile PCs, the volume of secondary PCs is accelerating. PC recycling is usually not profitable and that’s fatal in today's economy.
- Trend 5. Companies will become more tolerant of IT failures. A major theme in corporate computing is that business managers can and should be able to change processes, either changing the design, the instance, the data, or the execution. Such flexibility, however, cannot be implemented unless business users are encouraged to use a business process "sandbox" – a safe place in which to build their skills and test their ideas.
- Trend 4. Business process outsourcing (BPO) to undergo market consolidation. Twenty-five percent of the top 20 BPO providers will not exist as separate entities by 2012. The market will witness a shake out of its competitive landscape over the coming months as providers are swept up in the economic crisis, exposed to loss-making contracts on their books and an inability to adapt to standardized business models.
- Trend 3. Cloud computing will penetrate systems integration. By 2011, 30 percent of consulting and systems integration revenue will be delivered via "cloud computing," which Gartner defines as "a style of computing where massively scalable IT-enabled capabilities are delivered 'as a service' to external customers using Internet technologies." This will enable the delivery of potentially more cost effective consulting and integration solutions.
· Trend 2. Servers will become far more virtualised.
From 2009 to 2013, the server virtualisation software market will grow with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28 percent, rising from $1.8 billion to $6.2 billion. Virtualisation helps organisations cut costs, better utilise assets, and reduce implementation/management time and complexity.
And finally:
· Trend 1. Web conferencing will impact the airline industry.
High-definition based video meeting solutions will replace 2.1 million airline seats annually in the US alone, costing the travel and hospitality industry $3.5 billion per year. While there will always be strong cultural and other reasons for face-to-face encounters, organisations will accept that not every meeting needs to be face-to-face.
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